NATO Economics Directorate and Office of Information and Press Reiner Weichhardt Editor Deputy Director NATO Economics Directorate 26-28 June, 1996 Brussels 26-28 juin, 1996 Bruxelles

Colloquium 1996 Economic Developments and Reforms in Cooperation Partner Countries: The Social and Human Dimension Colloque 1996 L'évolution et les réformes économiques dans les pays partenaires de la coopération: la dimension sociale et humaine Contents Preface Reiner Weichhardt, Deputy Director NATO Economics Directorate Welcoming Remarks Ambassador Gebhardt Von Moltke, Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs, NATO Keynote Speech: Central and Eastern Europe: Economic Transformation, Social Cohesion and Social Dialogue by Lajos Héthy The format of panel sessions I-IV was generally structured as follows: presentations were started with a general overview, then specific Cooperation Partner country studies were discussed. A final assessment focused on prospects and implications for the West.

Panel I : Chair: Daniel George, Director, NATO Economics Directorate Panelists: Franz-Lothar Altmann Eugenijus Maldeikis Igor Y. Volossov Shirin Akiner Ivo Paparela Bruno Dallago

Balance Sheet of Economic Performance and Reforms in Cooperation Partner Countries A Balance Sheet of Economic Performance and Reforms in Partner Countries by Franz-Lothar Altmann The Parallel Side of the Economies in Transition: Case of Lithuania by Eugenijus Maldeikis The Russian Economy: Stabilization Prospects and Reform Priorities by Igor Y. Volossov Potential Threats to Stability and Social Cohesion in Central Asia by Shirin Akiner Some Random Reflections Concerning Financing of Social Measures in Countries in Transition by Ivo Paparela Between Spontaneity and Economic Engineering: Path Dependence in the Process of Economic Transition by Bruno Dallago

Panel II : Chair: Reiner Weichhardt, Deputy Director, NATO Economics Directorate Panelists: Marvin Jackson Marta Muço Vladimir Gimpelson Bernard Brunhes Nicholas Barr a Jonas Widgren b Michael Tokmazishvili c

Living Standards, Social Welfare and the Labour Market Labor Markets and Income Maintenance: A Survey of Transition by Marvin Jackson Income Policy and Labor Market Development in Albania: Some Distribution and Living Standard Implications by Marta Muço Is Employment in Russia Restructured? by Vladimir Gimpelson La réforme de la protection sociale dans les pays en transition d'Europe Centrale et Orientale et de la C.E.I. by Bernard Brunhes New Trends in Income Distribution in the Caucasus Region by Michael Tokmazishvili No paper. For background see 1996 World Bank Report: "From Plan to Development", Oxford University Press, 1996. No paper. Mr. Tokmazishvili was prevented from attending the conference, but submitted a paper.

Panel III : Chair: Brian Field, Senior Defence Economist, NATO Economics Directorate Panelists: Michael Drzoska Katarzyna Ukrowska Vyacheslav A. Yantsev Leonid Kosals Clark C. Abt Brian Hilton Andrei L. Kondakov

Armed Forces and Defence Industry in Transition Economies: the Human Dimension Comparative Overview of Human and Social Problems in Military Downsizing and Defense Industrial Restructuring in Cooperation Partner Countries by Michael Brzoska Poland: Labour Force in the Transition Period: Specific Focus on Military Sector by Katarzyna Zukrowska Influence on Human Resources of the Republic of Belarus by Defence Conversion by Vyacheslav Yantsev Military Enterprises in Russia: Adaptation to the Market System by Leonid Kosals Defense Conversion for European Employment and Growth: Comparative East-West Assessments with Lessons from 1991-1995 by Clark C. Abt Post Cold War Transition in a Globalising Defence Technological Industrial Base by Brian Hilton and Jan Leyson Defense Industry Conversion in Russia: The Human Dimension by Andrei Kondakov

Panel IV : Chair: Daniel George, Director, NATO Economics Directorate Panelists: Alexander Kennaway Daniel Daianu Grigory Nemiria Yuri Andreev Spiros T. Voyadzis a Jan Krzystof Bielecki Eva Ehrlich

Scenarios for Economic Development and Social Cohesion On the Relationship between Scientific Research, Development and Education and Their Benefit to the Economy by Alexander Kennaway Judging Romania's Way in a Comparative Framework by Daniel Daianu Ukraine: Prospects and Constraints by Grigory Nemiria Two Scenarios for Russia: More of Same or Social Market by Yuri Andreev CEE and CIS - Scenarios for Economic Development and Social Cohesion by Jan Krzystof Bielecki The Economy and Some Key Fields of the Social and Human Dimension in Hungary by Éva Ehrlich and Gábor Révész No paper. For background see 1996 World Bank Report: "From Plan to Development", Oxford University Press, 1996.

Summing Up: Economic Developments and Reforms in Cooperation Partner Countries: The Social and Human Dimension by John E. Tedstrom Summary of Discussions Copyright © 1997 NATO All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holders. First edition 1997 ISBN 92-8450093-7 This is the latest in a series bringing together papers presented at the NATO colloquia organised by the NATO Economics Directorate and Office of Information and Press on economic issues in the former USSR and Central and East European countries. For further information please write to the Director, Office of Information and Press, 1110 Brussels, Belgium. The articles contained in this volume represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion or policy of member governments or NATO.