Speech

Thank you. Thank you very much. And thank you very much, Mr Tsuchya, for those warm words. And also thank you for this university and for the fact that you host me here again. It is a real honor.

And I also want to thank the ambassadors of Romania and of Norway for being our contact point embassies for NATO here in Japan. And by the way, I would like to recognise the presence of many ambassadors, including of the Netherlands, who I know very well, but also so many others. And of course, all the students and faculty present here.

And again, for organising this event. Thank you for that, all of you. It's very special.

So a good morning, and I know it's still early, and especially for students, getting out of bed early is not always easy, but you know, for me, it's around two o'clock at night, or let's say, two o'clock in the morning right now. But I promise I'll stay wide awake thanks to you. And I hope you are just as excited as I am to be here today. The last time I visited this university, Keio University, was indeed nine and a half years ago, as I was Prime Minister of the Netherlands, and I was in Japan to discuss the close economic ties between my country and yours.

And this time, I'm here as Secretary General of NATO, and I want to talk about the close partnership between NATO and Japan and how important it is, especially right now in an increasingly dangerous world. Just last week, I had the honor to welcome Minister Takeshi Iwaya, the foreign minister of Japan, to NATO headquarters. And this is a meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Officials from NATO's other partners in the Indo Pacific, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, were also at the table. And in recent years, Japan has attended three NATO summits and other high level NATO meetings. I believe this is truly a testament to our deepening partnership, and I really appreciate it. It took me nearly 14 hours to fly from Amsterdam to Tokyo. That's far. We are on opposite sides of the globe, in different time zones, and yet in many ways, NATO and Japan are very close.

We share the same values, interests and concerns, and our security is clearly interlinked. What happens in the Indo Pacific matters to Europe, and what happens in Europe matters to Japan and to this region. This is why we both support Ukraine. Because it's where the fight for peace and freedom is taking place. Russia's war in Europe - yes, it's true, it is in Europe - but the conflict is truly global. With North Korean troops, Iranian drones and Chinese technologies fueling Russia's brutality against Ukraine and supporting Putin's attempts to crush freedom worldwide.

After more than three years of war, there are efforts underway to stop the fighting, and that's very positive. We want the war to end. But above all, we need a peace that lasts. For this, Ukraine must remain strong, so that Putin never again dares to attack, not Ukraine and not anyone else. To remain strong, it needs our help. NATO Allies provide 99% of military aid to Ukraine, including air defences, tanks, drones and munitions. We also provide billions of euros to transform Ukrainian armed forces for the long term.

Japan too, is playing a part in providing non-lethal assistance to Ukraine, and I'm deeply grateful for your substantial contributions through NATO's comprehensive assistance package. Our continued support matters. For Ukraine's defence and future and for global stability. The world is watching the war and its outcome very closely. China is certainly watching. If you allow Putin to use force to achieve his aims, it will not go unnoticed. It's Ukraine today, it could be East Asia tomorrow. In dangerous times, NATO and Japan are also both very focused on building stronger defences. This is about spending more on defence and producing more defence capabilities. Not to provoke war, but to protect peace.

For too long, many NATO Allies neglected our armed forces. We closed down defence companies. We took peace for granted, but not anymore. Over the last decade, European Allies and Canada added an extra 700 billion euros for defence. Last year alone, they increased defence spending by 20% and they are committed to go further and faster. At the same time, we are rebuilding our defence industry on both sides of the Atlantic, ramping up production of critical capabilities for our collective security.

On this, we are deepening cooperation with all our Indo Pacific partners. Japan is also spending much more on defence. Just yesterday, I visited the Yokosuka Naval Base. I was on board of one of Japan's destroyers, a projection of great power. It was impressive to see Japan's Maritime Self Defence Forces, together with United States' Seventh Fleet at the base.

I also visited Mitsubishi Electric, one of Japan's leading defence companies. Like companies across NATO countries, Mitsubishi needs to develop and deliver capabilities faster. And this is a real challenge, because we still rely on supply chain and raw materials from third countries that do not always share our values. We must eliminate harmful dependencies. The deteriorating security situation calls for us to do more, to produce more, and boost our resilience.

That is exactly what NATO is doing and what Japan is doing. Let's do it together.

My last point in this introduction is on technology and innovation, another area where NATO and Japan are closely aligned, and where I believe we can cooperate even more to outpace and out-compete our competitors. Russia's war against Ukraine shed light on the incredible speed of innovation. Ukrainians put innovative software in its drones, and within weeks, Russians managed to neutralise it. So we must learn from the battlefield in Ukraine as we prepare for the future.

And then there is China. It is rapidly developing technologies, integrating them into military capabilities. And connecting new technologies together, multiplying their potential disruptive impact on our societies, our economies and on our security. Competition in this field is fierce.

To maintain our military superiority and preserve our way of life we need to innovate more, better, much faster, and together, NATO Allies and Japan. This is something I will talk about in my meeting with Japanese dual-use startups later today. They work on drones, AI, space, and quantum. So do startups across NATO. By sharing our knowledge and innovation, we will not only stay ahead in the game, we will win it.

I count on you, the students, the young, smart and creative people. To continue to lead this technological innovation. To preserve global stability now and in the future.

I promised I'd stay awake. I very much am full of energy, and I hope you are as well. So now, of course, comes the best part. You get to ask me questions, and we can have a conversation, and I very much look forward to it. Thank you so much. Arigatō.

Professor Ken Jimbo
Well, thank you very much, Secretary General Rutte, for your very inspiring speech for this morning. And now we'd like to move on to the discussion segment of this event. I'd like to invite Professor Yuichi Hosoya to take the seat, and now I'd like to hand over Professor Hosoya to take a lead on this discussion segment.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
Thank you very much, Professor Jimbo and good morning everyone. I'm Yuichi Hosoya, professor of international politics at Keio University, and also director of Keio Centre for strategy. This is my greatest honour to be able to host NATO's Secretary General, Mark lute at Keio University, Tokyo. In fact, this is my third time to host NATO Secretary General. In 2008 December, we were fortunate to host at that time and say NATO Secretary General, Mr Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, another Dutch important Secretary General. And secondly, well, we are very fortunate to be able to have a panel discussion with former NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg. And this is my first time. I suppose that not so many university professors actually host it, NATO Secretary Generals.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
This is now the tradition, so for the rest of your life, you know what you'll do.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
I was so privileged. I think that, well, this time is different. Unlike two previous years, I think that the world has become much, much more dangerous, as Professor mentioned, and at the same time, the tie between the two, I mean, NATO and Japan, has become even more important than before. That's why I think that the many Japanese people are now glad to have you here in Japan in seeing further enhancement of the tie between the two, Japan and NATO and we have gathered actually 29 questions from students in advance, so I like to pick up some of the questions from these questions. And also I like to collect some questions from the floor.

And first, I like to pick up several questions which I have in advance. Actually, the largest numbers of questions are relating to President Donald Trump. Those are the most difficult questions, and other many questions are relating to the war in Ukraine. First, I'd like to ask a question covering the two important topics. I mean, the United States, and also the war in Ukraine. Let me read that question: in light of the strategic shift in the US security policy, towards Asia, Europe appears to be taking steps to provide for its own security. Given these circumstances, how will NATO engage with security in Asia? Furthermore, what sort of involvement is expected from Japan in European security? So the tie between the two, as well as further enhancement of strategic autonomy on Europe.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Well, thank you very much for that question. Is the student who asked that question in the room, so we can check whether he has not made him up these questions? No, no, I guess they really came up. Well, first of all, let's, let's acknowledge that the United States having to take care not only of the Euro Atlantic area, but also of the Indo Pacific, and, of course, the Middle East has to focus attention to more than one what is so called theatre at the same time.

So it is totally logical that they try and this is happening now since 2010 basically, and President Trump clearly stated that he wants to continue with that policy and maybe even speed it up to pivot more towards Asia, that's totally logic and also that they want the European and Canadian NATO Allies to take more of a burden, share the burden in a more equal, in a fairer way, it's only logical that where the US is spending 3.4, 3.5% of GDP on defence, that they want for Europe to equalize with what the US is spending. And by the way, not because the US is asking this, but as NATO as a whole, if we would stick with the original 2% goal, we cannot defend ourselves going forward in three to five years against the Russians. It is that simple. And luckily we are and so the spending is ramping up.

And then to the question. It means that we have it is an end policy. We have to spend more on the European, Canadian side of NATO. The US will, over time, pivot more towards Asia. This is happening already, and that will continue only logical. And at the same time, the President made very clear in my meeting with him, now, a month ago, that it is important for NATO to be also involved here through the IP4. So that is Republic of Korea, Australia, New Zealand. And of course, our the biggest economy in the IP4 for and the only g7 economy not in NATO, and that is Japan.

And that's exactly why I'm here to discuss defence industrial production, innovation, space Japan already is participating in many NATO activities. This is not about extending Article Five to the Indo Pacific. So this the collective defence clause, that will not happen, but to have a more integrated way of working together, to really have these to acknowledge that these two areas, the Indo, Pacific and the euro, Atlantic, cannot be seen as separate. This is exactly why I'm here.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
I'm glad to hear that particularly because it was Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida who focused on the importance of the tie between the two legions soon after the war broke out in Ukraine. And he also mentioned that the war in Ukraine is not just a war in Europe, but a war which would seriously undermine the foundation of the international order. So I think the Japanese role was and is important. And then I like to move on to another question, more difficult questions, I suppose, well, can NATO expand further in future? Of course, which can include Ukraine? Are there any changes to NATO as a result of the start of the Trump administration in the United States?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Of course, the fact that we spend more on the European and Canadian side of NATO has to do with the Russian threat. But let's be honest, the increase in Europe at this moment in defence spending since the end of January, and there was a political event taking place in Washington at the end of January. There was a change of administration. When you look at the staggering extra amount of money now coming in, look what Germany is doing, potentially freeing up half a trillion euros. And yens, by the way, is just a little bit more expensive than $1 but when you say half a trillion in yens, it is a half-trillion plus a little bit in dollars.

Just to make that comparison. Europeans as a collective, freeing up an extra 800 billion and then all these individual Allies from the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and I'm now forgetting five to 10 other Allies who have committed to a lot of more - Estonians, the Latvians and Lithuanians and the Polls - anyway, being close to or committing to 5, 6% of GDP on defence spending.

So this is happening, and of course, this has to do with the Russian threat, because we cannot defend the Euro Atlantic, if it would stick to this famous 2%, we have to spend much, much more. But of course, it helps a lot that Donald Trump came back on board. And since he became I told him, essentially, when you became president in 2016, 2017 the aggregate extra spending in Europe and Canada has been 700 billion, and that's still going up. And of course, what I'm just mentioning all these new numbers are coming in since January so and this is crucial, because we need the spending on defence industrial production, on more people, innovation, space, etc. We have to take care of all these developments over the coming years.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
Thank you very much indeed. After picking up the last question, which I gathered in advance, I will try to ask several questions from the floor. So may I introduce a question about Japan? What will be required of Japan in the future? I mean, amidst that rapidly changing global situation, how can Japan contribute to the NATO?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Of course, the fact that we work together means that we contribute to each other, it is first of all, an acknowledgement of the fact that you cannot separate these two parts of the world. But what happened, and particularly since October, in October, the news came in that North Korean troops would become active in the fight on the Russian side against Ukraine. So there are now North Korean soldiers are fighting in Europe.

We have a war going on in Europe. The biggest war since the Second World War, is happening as we speak, the Russian full scale attack, of course, it started in 2014 but the full scale attack started late February 2022.North Koreans have been involved. Of course, they don't do this without getting anything in return, and what they get in return is vital defence technology which will pose a threat to this whole part of the world, including the United States itself. So that's North Korea. Then China is still supporting Russia's war effort through dual use goods delivery through sanction circumvention.

Say they are still a main enabler of the war effort in Ukraine. And then we have Iran. And of course, what Iran is getting, in turn is a lot of money, and that makes it possible for Iran to stir up even more trouble in the Middle East, in Lebanon, in Gaza, through their proxies over there. So when anyone would think that the Russian war against Ukraine is a regional European war. It is not. It is really connecting the Euro Atlantic and the and the Indo Pacific. And that is why this connection between NATO and Japan and the other IP for partners is so important discussing, how can we ramp defence industrial production.

So yesterday I visited, as I said, Mitsubishi electric. And the question I have to all these defence companies, what? How can you times four times five produce what you are producing currently? Because that's what we need. And by the way, this is not only a problem here or on the European side of NATO, this is also very much a problem in the United States, because also the United States defence industrial base is not producing what they need to produce to keep us safe. At this moment, Russia is producing in three months in ammunition, what the whole of NATO, including the US, is producing in a year. And that whole of NATO is 20 times bigger as a collective economy, than Russia.

Russia is not bigger than the Netherlands and Belgium combined, and they are producing 20 times now what the whole of NATO is producing in a year. They produce it in three months. This is unacceptable. This is unsustainable. But when you talk to defence industrial companies, when you ask them, "What do you need to do?" It is really intricate. It is difficult, because you have to work on your supply chains. You have to work on your factories. You have to work on extra production lines, extra shifts, and then when you produce the stuff you have to need. You need extra bunker capacity, etc, to store it. So I do understand this is not easy. But if we don't do it, if you don't ramp up defence industrial production from Texas up to and including Turkey, but also here, the Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, we cannot keep ourselves safe. This is really existential.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
Thank you very much for your powerful, insightful answers to these questions from students. So let me collect then additional questions from the floor, so if you have question, please raise your hand and one two, yes. Please, yes. Could you briefly introduce yourself, your name and affiliation or status?

Question
I'm in the Faculty of Economics. I'm a bachelor student. And I'm in the fourth grade, and I have a question about the war that's happening in between Russia and Ukraine. So some people point out that the US bombing of Yugoslavia back in the 1990s and also NATO expanding to Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, has stimulated Russia and led to this war. So what is your opinion on this argument? What do you think of the argument that NATO expanding has led to more chances of the occurrences of war?

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Well, anyone comparing what happened in 1995 in Bosnia, in 1999 in Kosovo, to the present, to what Russians are doing now in Ukraine, that you can compare that in any way is totally offline and off limits, I'm absolutely convinced. What NATO did in 1995 and in 1999 was to try to protect civilian population against a terrible war going on there, the slaughter of Muslims in Bosnia taking place in 1995 for example, in Srebrenica. And then for NATO to get more and more involved, this was crucial, this was necessary to stabilize the region. If anyone thinks you can compare that to, I know you are saying this, but you are, of course, just quoting some other people, I know. I find that totally of limit and offline. It's absolutely not true. And then, of course, if Russia wants to discuss its security concerns or whatever they might have had in the past with NATO, with the Americans, with whomever, they could always do that, that can never be reason why you would have a full-scale attack at another country which is, which is an independent sovereign nation, Ukraine. And in the meantime, hundreds of 1000s of people being killed, cities destroyed, infrastructure destroyed, many people being killed, of course, on the Ukrainian side also, by the way, on the Russian side. There are days that up to 1500 maybe even 1800 Russians are being killed or seriously wounded. But on the Ukrainian side, the numbers are also staggering. So this was unprovoked, unacceptable, and it's got to stop. And therefore, I really commend what President Trump has been doing since he came in office, breaking the deadlock, trying to end this conflict, at least getting us now to a ceasefire as soon as possible. And let's hope that the Russians will now play ball, because this ball is, at this moment, on their side of the field, and they have to react now. Luckily, the Ukrainians have been working very closely together with the Americans who get this done, and I really want to thank President Trump for trying to break that deadlock and to [inaudible].

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
Thank you very much indeed. The gentleman behind.

Question (Kyoto News):
Thank you very much. Mr Rutte, I have a question about the European peacekeeping operation. It is obvious that United States has no intention to put their boots on the ground, but I believe there are a variety of things that Washington can do. Do you have any idea to get them involved as a sort of a backstop in the European peacekeeping operation? Thank you very much.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Yes. Thank you for the question. And let's agree we have to do this step by step. Step one is the Americans leading the peace effort now, and it has to be the Americans. They update, of course, Ukrainians, because it is about their country, and there's an intense dialog between the Americans and Ukrainians. They constantly updated Europeans. Secretary of State Rubio was in Brussels last week updating European and Canadian Allies about the US peace effort when it comes to Ukraine. So that is important, but the US is leading this. There is no peace deal yet or a cease fire. Of course, you have to think about what if, if there will be a cease fire station peace deal, how to make sure that it is lasting, that it is durable. And that is exactly what the French and the British are doing with many in Europe. And I think there are two sides to this.

One is everybody agrees that going forward, the first line of defence and of deterrence has to be for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be able to defend the country. And NATO is helping there, through our command in Wiesbaden in Poland, we have the centre where he collects all the lessons from the war. So NATO is very much involved and this is something, and we know that the two. Chiefs of defence are visiting. This is very openly announced Ukraine, to discuss with them how to make sure that Ukraine can build up its armed forces post a peace deal going forward, that will be a first line. And then, of course, there are many options to consider when it comes to the second layer of durability, of making that peace lasting, one of the French British idea. There could be other options. NATO is advising on all these ideas, what is the best way forward, but NATO will only get more officially involved when there is, let's say, more of a consensus on what will be the best way forward. And this is exactly also what the American president told me. He said, Well, it's fine to discuss all these options, but first we have to get Ukraine to peace before we have the luxury. Let's hope we can get to that moment of luxury as soon as possible to discuss how to make sure that the peace is lasting well.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
Thank you very much, Secretary General, the last two questions altogether that gentleman with the white mask, and also the lady in front, so please go ahead.

Question
I'm with the Faculty of Economics and I'm a fourth grader, and I would like to ask a question about, you know, before 2022 the shift of NATO... How to say, after 2022 there is a shift on focus from unconventional warfare to conventional warfare. Because before the invasion of Ukraine, I think most of us didn't expect there's another... how to say... nation scaled attack on other sovereign nation. And because of that, there was no... how to say... not enough preparation or the production capability of the ammunition or other things. So this is, I think, possibly because of the after the USSR is gone. So what I want to ask is, after the after the Russian invasion is settled, how to maintain the capability to produce ammo that is needed to conventional warfare?

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
One last question from the floor for the lady, please.

Question
I'm both Keio University and UCL in London. Thank you for your very interesting talk. I hear you praise President Trump, but I'd like to hear what you have to say about the imposition of tariffs, which is just two days ago, on the alliance between the United States and Europe. In France, I'm half French. We say that this disrupts the Alliance and is quite dangerous threat. I'd like to hear your views. Thank you.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Thank you so much. On the first question on I mean, I think what we have learned from the 2022, full scale attack on Ukraine, that as NATO, but I think also as Japan and all democracies in this part of the world, you have to prepare for every eventuality. So that means for NATO, first of all, of course, we have the US through its nuclear deterrence as the ultimate guarantor of peace in NATO territory, and particularly also in Europe. So that's still there, and that's still necessary. Then secondly, over the last 10, 20 years, we have discussed a lot about hybrid and cyber-attacks, etc., and they are still there. Take what is happening here and in the European part of NATO when it comes to the cutting of critical undersea infrastructure. This is continuing, and that means that when it comes to everything called hybrid assassination attempts, jamming of commercial airplanes in the Baltic area, cyber-attacks on the National Health Service of the United Kingdom, indeed, also the cutting of critical undersea infrastructure. We cannot be naive. We have to be prepared, and we need to react. So that's still there.

But your question is to the third element, and that is, the more traditional, as I understand your question, the more traditional warfare is still there. Very much there. I was watching this weekend because I met the filmmaker of this amazing documentary, "20 days in Mariupol". He is now working on a second documentary on the 2023 fight back by the Ukrainians, starting that summer, and that will come out later this year, I believe. And when you watch this, these documentaries, and when you talk with this, this documentary maker - and he's Ukrainian himself, he's from Kharkiv - you start to understand that even some First World War elements to this when it comes to trench wars, etc.

So that means that ammunition piles have to be stocked up, and that is why in Europe, we need to spend so much more on defence than we did in the past, not only to equalize with the US, which is only fair, but also to maintain the lethality which is necessary to fight back when it comes to it. And it is including not only investing in our navies and in our, of course, in our fighter jets, etc, but also in our more traditional land armies, for them to be movable, scalable. And we haven't done enough in the past. We need to invest more in air defence systems. We have not done enough in the past.

We have to, as I said before, to another question, we have to invest in ammo production, which is totally lacking at the moment. I sometimes have to think about this joke by Gandhi when he was asked about British civilization. "What do you think, Mr Gandhi of British civilization? “And his answer is, "It would be a good idea". And I sometimes thinking about the same joke, and somebody would ask me, "what do you think about defence industrial production? It would be a good idea" because we have fantastic companies, but they're not producing nearly enough, as I said before, to make sure we can defend ourselves. And again, this is including the US and defence industrial base, but also the whole of NATO in Europe, Canada, including Türkiye, etc.  

And here in Japan, we have to do much, much more. The base is there, luckily. So we have to do everything at the same time, and that is why we need to spend more money, get more people involved, ramp up production, ramp up spending, get more people into our armed forces. And luckily, we see them coming in now, which is very positive.

On your question. Well, first of all, of course, I'm not a political commentator, so I really want to focus on my job, which is to make sure that we are able, as NATO, to defend ourselves. I do acknowledge, obviously, that this whole tariff thing is rattling Allies individually, but this is something I must admit, for Allies to discuss with the United States. When it comes to the Alliance as a whole, I really want to focus on my daytime job, which is to make sure that as a collective, we are able to defend ourselves. And that's what we are doing. And there we are making huge progress.

Professor Yuichi Hosoya
Thank you very much indeed, due to the limit of time, I need to now close the session, but before that, I like all of you to join me in thanking NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, for your extraordinary intellectual contribution to our university. Thank you very much indeed.

Professor Ken Jimbo
Thank you very much. First of all to Professor Hosoyawa for skillfully moderating this session, and most of all, Secretary General Rutte for candidly responding to many of the questions from the four and I believe that for many students, it's a priceless opportunity to have a direct conversation with the Secretary General at this time. So once again, it's great privilege. For Keio University, we are very much honoured, and our special thanks and gratitude for Secretary General Rutte for spending such a precious time during your visit to Tokyo. So I hope that your remaining schedules in the Tokyo will be valuable ones, and we now have to see him off as he need to advance to the next schedule, which you will know at the reports coming in this evening as well. Thank you very much, Secretary General.