Speech

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

Last year when I spoke at this conference, I commended Germany for its shift towards “Kriegstüchtigkeit”. 

A shift towards stronger deterrence. 

To be better prepared. 

Not to wage war, but to prevent it. 

And over the past year Germany – together with its NATO Allies – has made immense strides in strengthening its defences. 
If you look at the whole Alliance: we now have 500,000 troops on high readiness.

We have established the Allied Reaction Force.

We are adapting our Command and Control structure.

And Allies are rapidly developing and expanding their capabilities.

This year, during Steadfast Defender we had 90,000 Allied troops exercising in Europe. 

Our message is clear: NATO is stronger and readier than ever.

Yesterday, Ukraine surpassed day one thousand of what the Kremlin thought would be a 3-day full scale war.
And as we all know: the war started long before that. 

Ukraine has bravely resisted attack… upon attack… upon attack…

… for almost 4,000 days.

And democracy… still… stands. 

In fact, it’s stronger than ever. 

The Ukrainians have proved to themselves and to the world there is NOTHING they can’t do.

They CAN outlast and they CAN out-suffer the Russians.

Anyone who does not see that, has not been paying attention.

All they need… is our help.

And we have it within ourselves to continue and ramp up our support to Ukraine and at the same time ramp up our own deterrence and defence. 

NATO Allies represent 50 percent of the world’s economic power. And 50 percent of the world’s military might… 

There is no-one in the universe better placed to do this than we are. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

I don’t think I’ve ever been accused of being an optimist. 

Or a pessimist…

I always try to be a realist. 

I’m known for my bluntness… and for sharing uncomfortable truths. 

So when I speak about what NATO can and cannot do… please know that it is not a marketing pitch.

It stems from a deeply held belief. 

And first-hand experience. 

Over the past 7 years (first as Chief of Defence and now as Chair of the Military Committee) I have witnessed how we refocused on collective defence. 

Throughout its 75 years, NATO has always adapted to the changing security climate.

After the annexation of Crimea, the NATO Military Authorities initiated a complete overhaul of our military strategies and our defence plans. 

We now know exactly how we will defend key and relevant places in our Alliance against the two threats described in the Strategic Concept and the NATO Military Strategy: Russia and Terrorist Groups.

And we know precisely what assets or capabilities are required of us in a crisis scenario, including where and what to deploy, and what their tasks would be.

We are currently in the phase of establishing the Capability Targets. 

Which means that we determine per nation what capabilities they need to develop and expand. 

Not just in order to be able to execute our new defence plans. 

To be ready NOW.

But also in order to make sure that we reach the long-term goals that are set in the NATO Defence Planning Process. 

To be ready in the FUTURE. 

As a result of this, we will see a more even distribution of capabilities among Allies.

European nations and Canada will develop capabilities that now only the United States has. 

This is a result of a process that has been going on for years, so it is independent from any national election. 

It is a system based on military logic, in order to have as much flexibility as possible. 

Some people say it is a form of burden sharing, but I object to the term ‘burden’. 

Security is not a burden.

Nor is it a cost. 

It is an investment. 

And a responsibility for all Allies. 

The new capability targets are all part of the complete overhaul towards collective defence. 

And as a result: the difference between NATO and national is fading more and more to the background.

This overhaul will require substantial more investments. 

2 percent is a floor… not a ceiling. 

In reality, it’s more like a basement. 

And it depends per nation how much higher that percentage needs to be. 

But more important than any percentage is the fact that Allies need to deliver on every single promise they have made to their fellow Allies. 
Every detailed plan of what capability they will provide, needs to be upheld.

Because NATO and national defence planning is more integrated than ever before. 

If there is one word that describes NATO in the past few years, it is the word “closer”.

And that goes for our cooperation with Partners as well. 

The best response to the rising levels of conflicts and growing insecurity in the world, is to stand together firmer than ever.

The fact that NATO is refocusing on collective defence, does not mean crisis management and cooperative security are no longer important. 

NATO remains fully committed to our KFOR and NMI missions. 

And we are actively looking for ways to deepen our military cooperation with Partners and improve our interoperability.

This is not about NATO becoming a global Alliance.

This is about the fact that security is global.

There is no such thing as regional security.

And cooperation with Partners strengthens all parties involved and helps us get rid of some of the unconscious bias we all have. 

So in the coming years, NATO will focus on: 
- implementing our defence plans

- creating a more even distribution of capabilities 

-increasing our investments.

- and deepening cooperation with Partners. 

But it doesn’t stop there. 

In the coming years, we will also focus more and more on the fact that security is not something we can outsource to the military. 

Strong deterrence requires strong societal resilience.

It requires active participation from all governmental institutions, from all parts of the private sector, and all citizens.

As we have seen in Ukraine: war is a whole-of-society event.

And therefore the prevention war is also a whole-of-society event.

The OPLAN Germany is a good example of how nations can make sure the conditions are in place to protect key and relevant facilities, products and infrastructure.  

Not only our defence industries, but our whole economies need to realise that peace is no longer a given.

Because while it may be the military who wins battles, it’s the economies that win wars.

For the past 2,5 years, I have been going around board rooms and finance conferences in Europe and America to persuade business leaders to think about two questions:
 
1) Is my company ready for war?
2) And what can my company do to prevent war?

That last question might surprise some people… but if we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered not matter what… than that is a key part of our deterrence.

Europe has seen that with energy supply.

We thought we had a deal with Gazprom… but we actually had a deal with Putin.

Same goes for Chinese owned infrastructure and goods: we actually have a deal with Xi.

60 percent of all rare earth materials are produced in China… and 90 percent is processed in China… 

90 percent of the chemical ingredients for sedatives, antibiotics, anti-inflammatories and low blood pressure medicines come from China.

We are naïve if we think the Communist Party will never use that power.

Business leaders in Europe and America need to realise that the commercial decisions they make, have strategic consequences for the security of their nation.

Businesses need to be prepared for a war-time scenario and adjust their production and distribution lines accordingly.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

War is back on the European continent.

And over the past years, more and more people in Europe realise that war can happen to them too… again.

In September this year, a poll by Eurobarometer stated that 58% of respondents did not consider themselves well prepared for a crisis in the area where they live.

And almost two-thirds feel that they need more information to prepare for disasters and emergencies.

People want to do more. They understand that the world is an increasingly unsafe place.

But they need leaders to help guide them through this.

It takes leadership to explain the tough choices.

That if you ramp up your deterrence and if you ramp up support to Ukraine: there will be less money to spend on other things.

It will take away some of our luxuries.

It will require sacrifice.

And it will mean we will have to take risks.

But not taking risks, is the biggest risk of all.

Needless to say: the world can be a dark place. And over the last years, it certainly grew even darker.
 
But there is light as well.
 
Over the past one thousand days, the Russian leadership – together with other autocratic leaders around the world - have been shocked by the strength and resilience of the Ukrainian people.
 
And they have been shocked by the united response from NATO, the EU and other democratic nations around the world.

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

The fact that the global security climate is becoming ever more complex and volatile does not mean we should slip into lethargic pessimism and think that these circumstances are beyond our control. 

We may not be able to change the world around us. 

But we can definitely change our place in it. 

One of the most commonly asked questions I get is: when will the Russians attack us?

And my answer… is that to a certain degree that depends on us. 

Deterrence is the 7 feet tall bouncer in front of the nightclub that makes you think twice about going in.

So if we make sure we are 7 feet tall, we’re in a much better position. 

But that requires a resilient mindset. 

It requires that we constantly ‘expect the unexpected’. 

Expect the unexpected means you don’t take anything for granted. 

You don’t assume that today will look like yesterday. Or tomorrow will look like today. 

You take responsibility for everything that is within your control. 

And you make sure you are prepared for all different types of scenarios. 

Expect the unexpected means you must constantly be on your guard. 

But that doesn’t mean you can’t trust anyone. 

On the contrary: leadership in these chaotic times means that TRUST is more important than ever. 

Trust is the difference between success and failure. 

Between life and death. 

Trust is not only nice to have… it’s need to have. 

And it’s the foundation upon which NATO is built. 

When people think about NATO… the largest most successful political-military alliance in the world, they think about tanks, fighter jets, and summits with lots of flags in the background.

And let’s be honest, we love those at NATO… Our Instagram page is filled with them. 

But that is not what NATO is about.

NATO is about the realisation that nations… that people need each other. 

To survive. And to thrive.

At the heart of NATO is not a headquarters, or endless statements of the North Atlantic Council.

At the heart of NATO is a promise of solidarity. 
A promise so powerful, that it now protects 1 billion people on earth. 

It grew from 12 nations in 1949 to 32 nations in 2024.

It is a promise that people from Norway are willing to risk their lives to protect the people from the Netherlands. 

People from Portugal to protect people from Poland. 

People from Canada protect people from Czechia. 

In this increasingly dark world, that is something to be immensely proud of.

And it’s something we can all be inspired by. 

Together we can and we will prove that democracy will triumph over tyranny.
 
That freedom will triumph over oppression.
 
And that light will triumph over darkness.

Thank you.